Abstract

The Novel Human Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) also well-known as COVID-19 is the greatest public health challenge of the 21st century. The aims of this article were to provide data analytic of the COVID-19 cases in Bulgaria and to modeling their spread using SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model. We used the covid19.analytics package from the statistical software R in extracting time-series data of COVID-19 in Bulgaria (dating March 8, 2020 to November 24, 2020), in presenting the data analysis as well as forecast the maximum number of infected people, peak time and the basic reproduction number based on SIR model. As per SIR model, the maximum number of infected people is reached after 61 days of starting of COVID-19 pandemic in Bulgaria (around May 13, 2020) with about 1.298446e^{+05} infections. The basic reproduction number R0 was found to 1.46, which means that on average an infectious individual infects 1.46 susceptible individuals during his infection period. We believe that performed data analytics of COVID-19 cases in Bulgaria and the obtained results of the SIR model will help government of Bulgaria when restricting the spread of the virus.

Citation details of the article

Journal: International Journal of Applied Mathematics
Journal ISSN (Print): ISSN 1311-1728
Journal ISSN (Electronic): ISSN 1314-8060
Volume: 33
Issue: 6
Year: 2020

DOI: 10.12732/ijam.v33i6.10

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